Tuzlaspor 2-0 Altay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.93
6+ Goals
9%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 32% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.47
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
22%
4.1
X/2
7%
8.16
X/X
16%
4.44
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
9%
6.5
2/X
8%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.8pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Altay EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.14/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.20
+3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
15.2 Crosses 16.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuzlaspor
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Altay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
0.94 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
271 Passes 346
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2023 Altay Altay 1-0 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
20.05.2023 Altay Altay 3-1 HT 2-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
24.12.2022 Tuzlaspor 4-2 HT 2-2 Altay Altay T1L
07.03.2021 Altay Altay 5-0 HT 1-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
30.12.2020 Tuzlaspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Altay Altay T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuzlaspor
2-0
AWAY Altay
1.43 xG 0.51
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
302 Passes 139
69% Pass Accuracy 50%
24 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tuzlaspor vs Altay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor got the better of Altay 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tuzlaspor as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tuzlaspor had 60% of the ball to Altay's 40%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.43 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Altay led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tuzlaspor and 2.40 for Altay.

What was the final score of Tuzlaspor vs Altay?

Tuzlaspor 2-0 Altay in the Turkey - 1st Division on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuzlaspor vs Altay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tuzlaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tuzlaspor 45%, draw 32%, Altay 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tuzlaspor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tuzlaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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