Aris Saloniki 1-2 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
37%
3.04
Away
34%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.59
2-3 Goals
34%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.37
6+ Goals
10%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 37% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.26
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
8%
6.77
X/2
16%
4.64
X/X
24%
3.84
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
10%
3.07
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
+0.3pp
37%
Draw
29%
+7.9pp
34%
Away Win
42%
-8.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -17%
0.80/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.15
+2% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -36%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
213 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
14.7 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Olympiakos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.01 xG 1.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
325 Passes 401
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 4-1 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
26.04.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
02.04.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-2 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
25.01.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-1 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUK
18.01.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
15.01.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
1-2
AWAY Olympiakos
0.61 xG 1.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
378 Passes 434
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos edged past Aris Saloniki 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 37% / 34% — and on the day Olympiakos made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 48% of the ball to Olympiakos's 52%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.61 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.67 for Olympiakos.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos?

Aris Saloniki 1-2 Olympiakos in the Greece - Super League on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 28%, draw 37%, Olympiakos 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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