Derby County 0-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Jan 2025

Derby County
0-1 HT 0-1
Sunderland
📅21/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Sunderland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
17.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.24
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
14.95
X/1
8%
7.77
X/2
17%
4.39
X/X
9%
4.51
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.59
2/X
5%
13.85
Value flag · 1/X at 14.95 — our 13% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Sunderland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 53%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.17/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.85
+38% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
269 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
17.7 Crosses 20.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

Derby County vs Sunderland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sunderland
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
286 Passes 229
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.03.2018 Derby County Derby County 1-4 HT 1-2 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
04.08.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 1-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
01.03.2008 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
01.12.2007 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNP
24.02.2007 Sunderland Sunderland 2-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 0-1 Sunderland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
0-1
AWAY Sunderland
0.73 xG 0.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
264 Passes 267
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland squeezed past Derby County 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sunderland as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Derby County had 51% of the ball to Sunderland's 49%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.73 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Sunderland?

Derby County 0-1 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Derby County 27%, draw 26%, Sunderland 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sunderland), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sunderland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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