Shire Endaselassie 1-0 Arba Minch Kenema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 21 Jan 2026

📅21/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
36%
2.7
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
79%
Over 2.5
21%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.29
No
67%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
51%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
8%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.6pp
36%
Draw
34%
+2.0pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.6pp
33%
BTTS Yes
40%
-6.2pp
67%
BTTS No
60%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shire Endaselassie EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Arba Minch Kenema EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.44/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.24
-55% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shire Endaselassie
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Arba Minch Kenema
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.04.2025 Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema 0-0 Shire Endaselassie Shire Endaselassie ETH
18.01.2025 Shire Endaselassie Shire Endaselassie 0-1 Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shire Endaselassie
1-0
AWAY Arba Minch Kenema
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Minch Kenema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shire Endaselassie edged past Arba Minch Kenema 1-0.

Our pre-match split (31% / 36% / 33%) promised a tight game; Shire Endaselassie found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (79%), no to both teams scoring (67%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Shire Endaselassie had 37% of the ball to Arba Minch Kenema's 63%, shots finished 7-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arba Minch Kenema led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Shire Endaselassie and 0.50 for Arba Minch Kenema.

What was the final score of Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Minch Kenema?

Shire Endaselassie 1-0 Arba Minch Kenema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 21/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shire Endaselassie vs Arba Minch Kenema?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Shire Endaselassie 31%, draw 36%, Arba Minch Kenema 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ETH More Etiyopya - Premier League
21 Jan 2026
13:00 Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Sheger Ketema Analysis →
15:00 Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Adama City Analysis →
18:00 Awassa Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema Analysis →