Watford vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Watford v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Watford vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Watford 2-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Watford beat Derby County 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Watford as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both.
The match data tells the story: Watford had 45% of the ball to Derby County's 55%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 1.30 to 0.54.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Watford and 1.00 for Derby County.
Watford vs Derby County Result & Final Score
Watford 2 - 0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Watford vs Derby County Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Watford 46%, draw 27%, Derby County 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Watford), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.