Watford 2-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 24 Aug 2024

Watford
2-1 HT 1-1
Derby County
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Watford vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.52
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
11%
4.23
X/2
6%
8.08
X/X
14%
4.51
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
13%
6.29
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Watford v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -21%
1.35/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.43
-5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.6 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Watford vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Derby County
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.64 xG 0.59
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
316 Passes 404
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2021 Watford Watford 2-1 HT 2-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
16.10.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
03.04.2015 Derby County Derby County 2-2 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
22.11.2014 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
26.04.2014 Derby County Derby County 4-2 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
19.10.2013 Watford Watford 2-3 HT 1-2 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Watford 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
2-1
AWAY Derby County
1.14 xG 0.73
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
534 Passes 236
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Watford vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford squeezed past Derby County 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Watford as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Watford had 65% of the ball to Derby County's 35%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.14 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Watford and 2.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Watford vs Derby County?

Watford 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Watford win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Watford 47%, draw 28%, Derby County 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Watford) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Watford) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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