Preston North End 1-0 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 32% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.13
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
8%
6.0
X/2
13%
5.17
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
17%
3.35
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Preston North End EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +19%
1.16/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.98
+2% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +70%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
280 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.4 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Preston North End
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Luton Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.87
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
241 Passes 229
63% Pass Accuracy 67%
14 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2023 Preston North End Preston North End 1-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
13.08.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
16.03.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 4-0 HT 3-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
30.10.2021 Preston North End Preston North End 2-0 HT 2-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
20.03.2021 Preston North End Preston North End 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
12.12.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Preston North End
1-0
AWAY Luton Town
0.26 xG 1.64
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 13
230 Passes 327
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 31
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Preston North End vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Preston North End squeezed past Luton Town 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Preston North End made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Preston North End had 42% of the ball to Luton Town's 58%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.26 to 1.64 — the balance of chances actually favoured Luton Town.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Preston North End and 1.50 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Preston North End vs Luton Town?

Preston North End 1-0 Luton Town in the England - Championship on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Preston North End vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Preston North End 35%, draw 29%, Luton Town 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Luton Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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