Derby County vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County v Watford — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Derby County 0-2 Watford — Actual Match Statistics
Watford got the better of Derby County 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Derby County had 56% of the ball to Watford's 44%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.91 to 1.96.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Watford.
What was the final score of Derby County vs Watford?
Derby County 0-2 Watford in the England - Championship on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County vs Watford?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Derby County 44%, draw 29%, Watford 27%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.