Nagoya Grampus 1-3 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
48%
+3.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.8pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.70/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.51
+0% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
17.8 Crosses 21.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
0W-1D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.41 xG 2.77
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
443 Passes 202
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2018 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-4 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
12.05.2018 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
21.10.2017 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1-3
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki got the better of Nagoya Grampus 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 59% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 41%, shots finished 14-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 2.67 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Nagoya Grampus 1-3 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J1 League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 52%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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