İtalya U21 1-2 Hollanda U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.44
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
11.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.02
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
6.04
X/2
13%
5.45
X/X
10%
4.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.43
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 11% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya U21 EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Hollanda U21 EU Bookmakers 43%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.80/2.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.00
+25% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya U21
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Hollanda U21
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
6 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
Corners 6
15.06.2013 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 1-0 HT 0-0 Hollanda U21 Hollanda U21 U21
29.05.2006 Hollanda U21 Hollanda U21 1-0 HT 0-0 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya U21
1-2
AWAY Hollanda U21
2.07 xG 0.90
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
350 Passes 327
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH İtalya U21 vs Hollanda U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hollanda U21 edged past İtalya U21 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Hollanda U21 made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, İtalya U21 had 53% of the ball to Hollanda U21's 47%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.07 to 0.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured İtalya U21.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for İtalya U21 and 0.50 for Hollanda U21.

What was the final score of İtalya U21 vs Hollanda U21?

İtalya U21 1-2 Hollanda U21 in the Friendlies on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya U21 vs Hollanda U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split İtalya U21 39%, draw 25%, Hollanda U21 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya U21), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya U21) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
21 Mar 2025
16:00 İzlanda U21 vs Macaristan U21 Analysis →
16:00 Tayland vs Afganistan Analysis →
17:00 Litvanya U21 vs Letonya U21 Analysis →
17:00 Arnavutluk U19 vs Kuzey Makedonya U19 Analysis →
20:00 İsviçre U21 vs Avusturya U21 Analysis →
20:00 Slovakya U21 vs Almanya U21 Analysis →