Ebbsfleet United 1-3 Weston-super-Mare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
51%
1.75
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.86
Over
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.11
2-3
42%
1.72
4-5
22%
3.37
6+
8%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Ebbsfleet United win — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.4pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
2.17/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.06
+21% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.11.2025 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 1-0 HT 1-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İCON
09.09.2014 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 3-2 HT 2-2 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
1-3
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
57% Ball Possession 43%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weston-super-Mare got the better of Ebbsfleet United 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ebbsfleet United at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 57% of the ball to Weston-super-Mare's 43%, shots finished 6-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Weston-super-Mare led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 2.00 for Weston-super-Mare.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Ebbsfleet United 1-3 Weston-super-Mare in the England - Conference on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ebbsfleet United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 51%, draw 21%, Weston-super-Mare 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ebbsfleet United)
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