Chesham United vs Maidstone United Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chesham United v Maidstone United — Team-Based Signals
Chesham United vs Maidstone United Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Maidstone United
FAK
Chesham United 4-2 Maidstone United — Actual Match Statistics
Chesham United got the better of Maidstone United 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Chesham United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Chesham United had 47% of the ball to Maidstone United's 53%, shots finished 9-8.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chesham United and 1.00 for Maidstone United.
What was the final score of Chesham United vs Maidstone United?
Chesham United 4-2 Maidstone United in the England - Conference on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Maidstone United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 36%, draw 28%, Maidstone United 36%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.