Derby County 1-0 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Mar 2026

Derby County
1-0 HT 1-0
Birmingham
📅21/03/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Birmingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.98
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.85
X/2
10%
5.48
X/X
14%
4.45
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.59
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Birmingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -20%
1.24/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.28
-8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.6 Crosses 20.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Derby County vs Birmingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Birmingham
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.51
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 Passes 252
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2025 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.01.2022 Derby County Derby County 2-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
10.09.2021 Birmingham Birmingham 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
24.04.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
29.12.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 0-4 HT 0-3 Derby County Derby County İNCL
22.07.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 1-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 1-0 Birmingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-0
AWAY Birmingham
1.16 xG 0.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
237 Passes 234
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Birmingham 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Derby County made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Derby County had 50% of the ball to Birmingham's 50%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.16 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Derby County and 1.33 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Birmingham?

Derby County 1-0 Birmingham in the England - Championship on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Derby County 37%, draw 28%, Birmingham 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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