Moreton City Excelsior 3-1 Rochedale Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.43
No
41%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
19%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
59%
+1.1pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.5pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
66%
-6.3pp
41%
BTTS No
34%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochedale Rovers EU Bookmakers 24%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
3.60/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.28
+56% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +63%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreton City Excelsior
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Rochedale Rovers
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
18.08.2024 Rochedale Rovers Rochedale Rovers 1-3 HT 0-0 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVNPL
19.05.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 2-0 Rochedale Rovers Rochedale Rovers AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreton City Excelsior vs Rochedale Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreton City Excelsior saw off Rochedale Rovers 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Moreton City Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Moreton City Excelsior had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Moreton City Excelsior and 0.50 for Rochedale Rovers.

What was the final score of Moreton City Excelsior vs Rochedale Rovers?

Moreton City Excelsior 3-1 Rochedale Rovers in the Australia - National Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreton City Excelsior vs Rochedale Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreton City Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Moreton City Excelsior 60%, draw 19%, Rochedale Rovers 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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