Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toulouse v Lorient — Team-Based Signals
Toulouse vs Lorient Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toulouse 1-0 Lorient — Actual Match Statistics
Toulouse found just enough to beat Lorient 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — under 2.5 goals (55%) came home.
Under the surface, Lorient saw more of the ball, 58% to 42%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.65 to 0.59.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Toulouse against 1.00 for Lorient.
Toulouse vs Lorient Result & Final Score
Toulouse 1 - 0 Lorient in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 52%, draw 28%, Lorient 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.