Lorient 1-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.43
1/2
10%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
11%
5.15
X/2
11%
5.81
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
16%
4.07
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.34/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.08
+5% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.9 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Toulouse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.11 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
367 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
23.04.2023 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
21.08.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
31.10.2018 Toulouse Toulouse 0-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FRLK
08.02.2017 Lorient Lorient 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
10.12.2016 Toulouse Toulouse 3-2 HT 2-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
1-2
AWAY Toulouse
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
350 Passes 356
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse edged past Lorient 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Toulouse made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lorient had 50% of the ball to Toulouse's 50%, shots finished 15-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lorient and 1.33 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Toulouse?

Lorient 1-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lorient 36%, draw 27%, Toulouse 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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