Rennes 4-5 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Apr 2024

Rennes
4-5 HT 2-1
Brest
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Rennes vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.4
X/1
12%
4.63
X/2
15%
6.65
X/X
8%
4.21
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
7%
5.06
2/X
7%
13.75
Value flag · 1/X at 13.4 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.50/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.25
+14% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.3 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

Rennes vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Brest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.40 xG 1.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
448 Passes 300
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Brest Brest 0-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
03.06.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-2 Rennes Rennes FR1
31.08.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
06.02.2022 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
15.08.2021 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
17.01.2021 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 4-5 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
4-5
AWAY Brest
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
310 Passes 342
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest nicked a narrow win over Rennes 5-4 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rennes at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rennes had 47% of the ball to Brest's 53%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rennes and 0.67 for Brest.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Brest?

Rennes 4-5 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Rennes 44%, draw 27%, Brest 29%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rennes), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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