Lyon 3-2 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Apr 2024

Lyon
3-2 HT 2-1
Monaco
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.63
Over 2.5
54%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.38
No
46%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.52
2-3 Goals
41%
2.13
4-5 Goals
24%
2.51
6+ Goals
12%
5.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
15%
5.84
X/2
13%
6.42
X/X
10%
6.17
2/1
5%
22.3
2/2
17%
3.55
2/X
7%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
34%
+12.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
66%
-12.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
68%
-14.8pp
46%
BTTS No
32%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +21%
1.66/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.43
+40% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
17.5 Crosses 15.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Lyon vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Monaco
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.64 xG 1.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
468 Passes 320
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Monaco Monaco 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
19.05.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
11.09.2022 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
05.02.2022 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
16.10.2021 Lyon Lyon 2-0 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
02.05.2021 Monaco Monaco 2-3 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 3-2 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
3-2
AWAY Monaco
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
332 Passes 385
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon squeezed past Monaco 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lyon had 47% of the ball to Monaco's 53%, shots finished 15-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon and 1.17 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Monaco?

Lyon 3-2 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lyon 39%, draw 23%, Monaco 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
28 Apr 2024
14:00 Metz vs Lille Analysis →
16:00 Clermont vs Reims Analysis →
16:00 Lorient vs Toulouse Analysis →
16:00 RC Strasbourg vs Nice Analysis →
18:05 Rennes vs Brest Analysis →
22:00 Marsilya vs Lens Analysis →