Metz 1-2 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Apr 2024

Metz
1-2 HT 1-2
Lille
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Metz vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 32% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.96
1/2
9%
24.0
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
9%
9.95
X/2
22%
3.86
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.14
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
20%
+6.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-5.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.1pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 59%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.03/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.22
+14% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 84%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
19.4 Crosses 17.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Metz vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Lille
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.49
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
248 Passes 460
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
18.02.2022 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
08.08.2021 Metz Metz 3-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
09.04.2021 Metz Metz 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
13.09.2020 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
09.11.2019 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1

Metz 1-2 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1-2
AWAY Lille
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
211 Passes 635
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
POST-MATCH Metz vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille squeezed past Metz 2-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Metz had 29% of the ball to Lille's 71%, shots finished 5-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Metz and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of Metz vs Lille?

Metz 1-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Metz 26%, draw 24%, Lille 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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