Fagiano Okayama 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.59
Over 2.5
50%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
4.55
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.05/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/2.73
-52% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -58%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
22.1 Crosses 9.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2W-4D-0L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
308 Passes 328
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.05.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.07.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
17.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
29.05.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
0-1
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past Fagiano Okayama 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fagiano Okayama at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 47% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 53%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.33 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Fagiano Okayama 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J1 League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 46%, draw 27%, V-Varen Nagasaki 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ BTTS Yes
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