Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.32/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.29
-5% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
434 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
40.0 Crosses 17.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2W-4D-0L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
361 Passes 325
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.05.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.07.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
17.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
29.05.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
28.11.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 0
15 Corners 0
256 Passes 332
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama squeezed past V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Fagiano Okayama found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 45% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 55%, shots finished 11-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.33 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 38%, draw 27%, V-Varen Nagasaki 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5
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