Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.93
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
0.94/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.23
-16% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -43%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
255 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.3 Crosses 19.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.22 xG 1.01
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
264 Passes 416
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2025 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
22.02.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
24.08.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-2 HT 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.05.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
11.11.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.06.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2-2
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.81 xG 1.39
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
260 Passes 309
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 4
12 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Gamba Osaka at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 49% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 51%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.81 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.17 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 28%, draw 26%, Gamba Osaka 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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