Gamba Osaka 2-2 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.24
2-3 Goals
34%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.5
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.83
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
10%
4.08
X/2
7%
7.32
X/X
17%
3.7
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
10%
6.4
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.5pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +23%
1.77/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.03
-7% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.4 Crosses 19.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.92 xG 1.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
420 Passes 270
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
11.11.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.06.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
31.08.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
19.03.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-3 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
17.07.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
2-2
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
1.51 xG 1.79
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
422 Passes 191
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka and Avispa Fukuoka shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Gamba Osaka at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 65% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 35%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.51 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.17 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Gamba Osaka 2-2 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - J1 League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 43%, draw 30%, Avispa Fukuoka 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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