Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 May 2024

Avispa Fukuoka
1-0 HT 1-0
Gamba Osaka
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
14%
6.3
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
18%
4.73
X/2
12%
5.99
X/X
22%
3.3
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
9%
5.04
2/X
5%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.2pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.22/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.49
-20% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
23.9 Crosses 15.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 0.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
280 Passes 417
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.06.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
31.08.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
19.03.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-3 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
17.07.2021 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
07.04.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP

Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Gamba Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-0
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.35 xG 0.67
28% Ball Possession 72%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
166 Passes 567
68% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka edged past Gamba Osaka 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 31% / 28% — and on the day Avispa Fukuoka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 28% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 72%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.35 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.17 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 40%, draw 31%, Gamba Osaka 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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