Shonan Bellmare 0-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.51
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
11%
5.08
X/2
15%
5.88
X/X
14%
4.1
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
14%
4.31
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.43/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.17
-14% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.9 Crosses 16.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.63
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
314 Passes 343
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
11.11.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
23.04.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-2 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.07.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
06.04.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
15.08.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
0-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.59 xG 0.90
72% Ball Possession 28%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
506 Passes 154
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus nicked a narrow win over Shonan Bellmare 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 72% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 28%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.59 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.17 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Nagoya Grampus?

Shonan Bellmare 0-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 37%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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