Arda Kardzhali 2-3 CSKA Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.13
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.82
Over 2.5
39%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.88
No
61%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-5.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.1pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 58%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
0.00/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.58
-100% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
197 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
0W-1D-1L
AWAY CSKA Sofia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2024 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BULK
27.10.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 0-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2-3
AWAY CSKA Sofia
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Sofia squeezed past Arda Kardzhali 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had CSKA Sofia as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 38% of the ball to CSKA Sofia's 62%, shots finished 6-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, CSKA Sofia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.50 for CSKA Sofia.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA Sofia?

Arda Kardzhali 2-3 CSKA Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an CSKA Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 23%, draw 28%, CSKA Sofia 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Sofia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Sofia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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