Junior 1-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.0pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Junior EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.68/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.21
+10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
16.7 Crosses 12.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Junior
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 0.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
365 Passes 223
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2023 Junior Junior 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
07.05.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 1-0 Junior Junior KOL
08.08.2022 Junior Junior 1-2 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
13.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
22.08.2021 Junior Junior 4-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
17.02.2020 Junior Junior 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Junior
1-0
AWAY Once Caldas
1.37 xG 0.44
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 7
342 Passes 214
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Junior vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Junior edged past Once Caldas 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Junior as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Junior had 59% of the ball to Once Caldas's 41%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.37 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Junior and 1.17 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Junior vs Once Caldas?

Junior 1-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Junior vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Junior 50%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Junior), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Junior) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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