Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.15
6+ Goals
9%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 30% vs market 20.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
10%
3.56
X/2
8%
13.9
X/X
10%
6.23
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
11.15
2/X
7%
19.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.3pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.2pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.94/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.67
+28% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
413 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.1 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.41 xG 1.23
63% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
474 Passes 255
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 3-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
20.05.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
11.09.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 8-0 HT 5-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
15.07.2020 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 4-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.07.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
31.03.2019 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
1-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.56 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
563 Passes 300
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 62% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 38%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.56 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 1.17 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg?

Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 55%, draw 23%, FK Orenburg 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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