Rostov 1-5 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.28
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
19%
4.94
X/2
11%
6.06
X/X
13%
4.43
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
11%
4.38
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.67/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.27
+32% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
19.4 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.22 xG 1.16
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
292 Passes 343
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.02.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-3 HT 0-2 Rostov Rostov HAZ
12.11.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
29.04.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
11.09.2022 Rostov Rostov 4-2 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
24.04.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
30.10.2021 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
1-5
AWAY Spartak Moskova
0.74 xG 2.11
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
252 Passes 211
70% Pass Accuracy 68%
35 Box Touches 26
28 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rostov vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova swept aside Rostov 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rostov at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rostov had 54% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 46%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.74 to 2.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rostov and 1.33 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Rostov vs Spartak Moskova?

Rostov 1-5 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rostov 43%, draw 29%, Spartak Moskova 28%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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