Antalyaspor 2-1 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.91
Over 2.5
37%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 35% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.63
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
12%
4.47
X/2
11%
7.58
X/X
17%
4.78
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
9%
5.54
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.4pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
48%
+14.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
52%
-14.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.2pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Antalyaspor EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.37/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.58
-6% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.5 Crosses 15.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Antalyaspor
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hatayspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.72 xG 1.73
52% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
344 Passes 360
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-3 HT 1-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
07.01.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
11.04.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
09.02.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-2 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TÜK
20.11.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
20.04.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-2 HT 1-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Antalyaspor
2-1
AWAY Hatayspor
0.91 xG 2.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 3
472 Passes 242
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Antalyaspor squeezed past Hatayspor 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 33% / 27%) promised a tight game; Antalyaspor found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Antalyaspor had 62% of the ball to Hatayspor's 38%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.91 to 2.58 — on chances, Hatayspor could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.67 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?

Antalyaspor 2-1 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Antalyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Antalyaspor 40%, draw 33%, Hatayspor 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Antalyaspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Antalyaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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