Merthyr Town 3-0 Hungerford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.45
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.29
Over Pick
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
39%
4-5
24%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-16.4pp
28%
Draw
19%
+8.7pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Hungerford Town EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
3.01/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.27
+45% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Hungerford Town
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
26.12.2024 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
01.04.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town İNGNLP
01.01.2024 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
3-0
AWAY Hungerford Town
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Hungerford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town ran out comfortable winners over Hungerford Town 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 62% of the ball to Hungerford Town's 38%, shots finished 17-3.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Merthyr Town and 0.67 for Hungerford Town.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Hungerford Town?

Merthyr Town 3-0 Hungerford Town in the England - Non League Premier on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Hungerford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 48%, draw 28%, Hungerford Town 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNGNLP More England - Non League Premier
21 Apr 2025
00:00 Leek Town vs Macclesfield Analysis →
00:00 Stratford Town vs Alvechurch Analysis →
15:00 Royston Town vs St Ives Town Analysis →
17:00 Bishops Stortford vs AFC Sudbury Analysis →
17:00 Banbury United vs Redditch United Analysis →
17:00 Hitchin Town vs Bedford Town Analysis →