Hungerford Town 1-3 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
34%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
Over
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.41
No
42%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
40%
4-5
24%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.2pp
34%
Away Win
43%
-9.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
67%
-8.8pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hungerford Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 48%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.90/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.79
+28% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hungerford Town
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Merthyr Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
01.04.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town İNGNLP
01.01.2024 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Hungerford Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town beat Hungerford Town 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Merthyr Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hungerford Town and 2.00 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Hungerford Town vs Merthyr Town?

Hungerford Town 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hungerford Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hungerford Town win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hungerford Town 37%, draw 29%, Merthyr Town 34%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hungerford Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hungerford Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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