Deportivo Cali 1-0 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
1.68
Over
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2-3
38%
4-5
15%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
20%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.8pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.7pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-8.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.4pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cali EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 51%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.04/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/0.94
+10% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
257 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
14.9 Crosses 14.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cali
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.48
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
255 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 4
10.10.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
17.02.2024 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 3-2 HT 2-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
07.08.2023 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
13.02.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
19.09.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali KOL
22.03.2022 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 3-3 HT 3-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cali
1-0
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.48 xG 1.42
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
177 Passes 435
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
6 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cali edged past Atletico Nacional 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 33% / 38% — and on the day Deportivo Cali made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Cali had 32% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 68%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.48 to 1.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Nacional.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportivo Cali and 1.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportivo Cali 1-0 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cali 29%, draw 33%, Atletico Nacional 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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