Alanyaspor 1-0 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.71
Over 2.5
55%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.98
6+ Goals
11%
18.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.98 — our 28% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.6
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
12%
5.41
X/2
12%
6.17
X/X
10%
4.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
30.0
2/2
17%
4.41
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -8%
1.58/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.30
-2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.9 Crosses 16.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alanyaspor
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.07 xG 0.88
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
430 Passes 287
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
18.05.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
17.01.2024 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-3 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
25.12.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-1 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
12.03.2016 Samsunspor Samsunspor 5-1 HT 3-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor T1L
17.10.2015 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-2 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alanyaspor
1-0
AWAY Samsunspor
0.41 xG 1.43
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
199 Passes 446
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alanyaspor edged past Samsunspor 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Alanyaspor made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alanyaspor had 35% of the ball to Samsunspor's 65%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.41 to 1.43 — the balance of chances actually favoured Samsunspor.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alanyaspor and 2.17 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?

Alanyaspor 1-0 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alanyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Alanyaspor 41%, draw 24%, Samsunspor 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alanyaspor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alanyaspor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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