Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Defensor Sporting v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Defensor Sporting 1-2 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
Progreso nicked a narrow win over Defensor Sporting 2-1 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Defensor Sporting at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 52% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.
On the day, Defensor Sporting had 65% of the ball to Progreso's 35%, shots finished 11-8.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.17 for Progreso.
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Result & Final Score
Defensor Sporting 1 - 2 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 64%, draw 21%, Progreso 15%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Defensor Sporting) went the other way.