Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Defensor Sporting v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
Progreso
URUK
1-1
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URUK
3-3
HT 2-1
Defensor Sporting
URU
Defensor Sporting 1-2 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
Progreso nicked a narrow win over Defensor Sporting 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Defensor Sporting at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Defensor Sporting had 65% of the ball to Progreso's 35%, shots finished 11-8.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.17 for Progreso.
What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Defensor Sporting 1-2 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 58%, draw 20%, Progreso 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Defensor Sporting), BTTS No went the other way.