Defensor Sporting 3-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Nov 2024

📅14/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.1pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -9%
1.85/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.55
+20% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Progreso
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
12.05.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-4 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
04.11.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URUK
26.10.2022 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URUK
11.02.2021 Progreso Progreso 3-3 HT 2-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
19.08.2020 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
3-0
AWAY Progreso
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting cruised past Progreso 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 51% of the ball to Progreso's 49%, shots finished 14-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.33 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?

Defensor Sporting 3-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 50%, draw 29%, Progreso 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
14 Nov 2024
01:00 Cerro Largo vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Analysis →
15:45 Danubio vs Cerro Analysis →
22:30 Boston River vs Rampla Juniors Analysis →