Santos 2-2 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 21 May 2026

Santos
2-2 HT 2-0
San Lorenzo
📅21/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Copa Sudamericana – 2026

Santos vs San Lorenzo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
16%
4.44
6+ Goals
8%
24.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 37% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
14.25
X/1
18%
4.21
X/2
13%
8.09
X/X
10%
4.0
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
9%
6.98
2/X
8%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.0pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v San Lorenzo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / –
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
– Crosses 18.7
– Yellow Cards 2.1

Santos vs San Lorenzo Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-2D-1L
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.19 xG 1.46
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 7
355 Passes 247
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.04.2026 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 1-1 Santos Santos CSA
14.04.2021 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo LKU
07.04.2021 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-3 HT 0-2 Santos Santos LKU
12.10.2006 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo CON CSA
28.09.2006 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 3-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos CON CSA

Santos 2-2 San Lorenzo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
2-2
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.25 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
277 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santos vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos and San Lorenzo couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Santos at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 45% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 55%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Santos and 1.40 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of Santos vs San Lorenzo?

Santos 2-2 San Lorenzo in the Copa Sudamericana on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Santos 44%, draw 28%, San Lorenzo 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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