BFC Daugavpils 3-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 21 Jun 2024

📅21/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
5%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 42%
+33% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.20/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.65
+51% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -47%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
20.5 Crosses 22.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.06 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
258 Passes 276
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-0 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.09.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
30.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 5-2 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.03.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.60 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
258 Passes 231
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils cruised past FS Jelgava 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 36% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 52% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 48%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.83 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

BFC Daugavpils 3-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 38%, draw 27%, FS Jelgava 36%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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