Shenzhen FC 2-1 Changchun YaTai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.27
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 34% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
4.34
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
13%
6.26
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
5.18
X/X
13%
4.37
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
19%
3.31
2/X
9%
12.45
Value flag · X/2 at 5.18 — our 21% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
32%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.77/2.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.35
+27% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
19.1 Crosses 11.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shenzhen FC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Changchun YaTai
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.59 xG 1.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
360 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.05.2024 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 0-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
29.09.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
08.06.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 4-1 HT 3-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
10.12.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-2 HT 0-2 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
30.09.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-0 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
29.12.2021 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shenzhen FC
2-1
AWAY Changchun YaTai
2.16 xG 1.36
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
298 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shenzhen FC vs Changchun YaTai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shenzhen FC squeezed past Changchun YaTai 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Changchun YaTai at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shenzhen FC had 52% of the ball to Changchun YaTai's 48%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.16 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Changchun YaTai led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Shenzhen FC and 1.67 for Changchun YaTai.

What was the final score of Shenzhen FC vs Changchun YaTai?

Shenzhen FC 2-1 Changchun YaTai in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shenzhen FC vs Changchun YaTai?

Before kick-off our model rated an Changchun YaTai win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Shenzhen FC 26%, draw 29%, Changchun YaTai 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Changchun YaTai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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