BG Pathum Utd 4-0 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.18
Draw
21%
7.13
Away
62%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
Over 2.5
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
12%
+5.2pp
21%
Draw
12%
+9.2pp
62%
Away Win
76%
-14.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum Utd EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 80%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
437 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.7
Crosses 19.1
Yellow Cards 1.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum Utd
4-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.88 xG 2.09
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
303 Passes 628
85% Pass Accuracy 91%
16 Box Touches 38
7 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH BG Pathum Utd vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum Utd cruised past Borussia Dortmund 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Borussia Dortmund at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, BG Pathum Utd had 34% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 66%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.88 to 2.09.

What was the final score of BG Pathum Utd vs Borussia Dortmund?

BG Pathum Utd 4-0 Borussia Dortmund in the Friendlies on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum Utd vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum Utd 17%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 62%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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