Lierse Kempenzonen 3-4 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.63
Over 2.5
57%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.39
No
51%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
34%
+8.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
66%
-8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
68%
-18.6pp
51%
BTTS No
32%
+18.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
403 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.46 xG 3.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 8
264 Passes 337
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
8 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2021 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 1-3 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL2
05.02.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 2-0 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
05.12.2020 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 5-0 HT 2-0 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
18.10.2020 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 0-2 HT 0-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
3-4
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lierse Kempenzonen vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise nicked a narrow win over Lierse Kempenzonen 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lierse Kempenzonen had 50% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 50%, shots finished 7-15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lierse Kempenzonen and 3.00 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Lierse Kempenzonen vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Lierse Kempenzonen 3-4 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Friendlies on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lierse Kempenzonen vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lierse Kempenzonen 34%, draw 25%, Union Saint-Gilloise 41%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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