Hamburg 0-3 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.38
Over 2.5
47%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.08 — our 29% vs market 15.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.8pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 36%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
0-3
AWAY Cardiff City
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff City cruised past Hamburg 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hamburg had 53% of the ball to Cardiff City's 47%, shots finished 6-17.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Cardiff City?

Hamburg 0-3 Cardiff City in the Friendlies on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 43%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 31%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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