Once Caldas 1-0 Aguilas Doradas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.5pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.16/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.03
-10% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
19.0 Crosses 13.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 0.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
241 Passes 288
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.01.2024 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.08.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 2-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
12.02.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
19.07.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
30.01.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
12.09.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-3 HT 1-2 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.03 xG 0.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
226 Passes 310
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Aguilas Doradas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Aguilas Doradas 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 32% — and on the day Once Caldas made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 44% of the ball to Aguilas Doradas's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.03 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aguilas Doradas led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Once Caldas and 1.50 for Aguilas Doradas.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Aguilas Doradas?

Once Caldas 1-0 Aguilas Doradas in the Colombia - Primera on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Aguilas Doradas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 37%, draw 31%, Aguilas Doradas 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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