Chernomorets 1-2 Chayka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Chayka EU Bookmakers 25%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.09/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.71
+42% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chernomorets
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Chayka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
27.06.2019 Chayka Chayka 1-0 HT 1-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets HAZ
08.07.2017 Chernomorets Chernomorets 3-3 HT 1-3 Chayka Chayka HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chernomorets
1-2
AWAY Chayka
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chernomorets vs Chayka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chayka nicked a narrow win over Chernomorets 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Chernomorets at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chernomorets had 63% of the ball to Chayka's 37%, shots finished 19-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Chayka led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chernomorets and 2.00 for Chayka.

What was the final score of Chernomorets vs Chayka?

Chernomorets 1-2 Chayka in the Russia - FNL on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chernomorets vs Chayka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chernomorets win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chernomorets 45%, draw 28%, Chayka 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chernomorets) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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