FC Sochi 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +39%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 281
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
23.07.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-0 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
21.10.2017 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS1
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Sochi and Baltika Kaliningrad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Sochi and 1.00 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

FC Sochi 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - FNL on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Sochi win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 40%, draw 27%, Baltika Kaliningrad 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Sochi), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Sochi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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