Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.65
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.68
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.6
X/1
12%
4.39
X/2
10%
7.38
X/X
13%
4.65
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
5.56
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Coruna EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.10/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.25
-38% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.7 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
0-2
AWAY Burgos
1.24 xG 1.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
428 Passes 275
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Coruna vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo La Coruna at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo La Coruna had 59% of the ball to Burgos's 41%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.24 to 1.29.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs Burgos?

Deportivo La Coruna 0-2 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Coruna vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Coruna win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Coruna 42%, draw 30%, Burgos 27%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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