St. Gallen 2-3 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
6.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.36
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
4.63
X/2
9%
8.52
X/X
13%
5.79
2/1
7%
20.9
2/2
12%
5.52
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.4pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.61/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.46
-5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.1 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Luzern
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.51
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
276 Passes 248
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-1 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.02.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
06.08.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
20.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
19.02.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
19.10.2022 Luzern Luzern 3-3 HT 2-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
2-3
AWAY Luzern
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern edged past St. Gallen 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was St. Gallen at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Gallen had 55% of the ball to Luzern's 45%, shots finished 14-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Gallen and 1.50 for Luzern.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Luzern?

St. Gallen 2-3 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 44%, draw 27%, Luzern 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Gallen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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