Naesby 2-3 Holbaek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.5pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Holbaek EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.28/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.04
+26% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +68%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Holbaek
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 Naesby Naesby 3-2 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
27.04.2024 Holbaek Holbaek 3-2 HT 2-2 Naesby Naesby DAN3
10.03.2024 Naesby Naesby 0-3 HT 0-0 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
14.10.2023 Holbaek Holbaek 2-3 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
03.04.2021 Holbaek Holbaek 0-2 HT 0-2 Naesby Naesby DAN2
03.10.2020 Naesby Naesby 2-2 HT 0-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
2-3
AWAY Holbaek
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Holbaek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holbaek squeezed past Naesby 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Naesby at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Naesby had 53% of the ball to Holbaek's 47%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Naesby had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Naesby and 2.00 for Holbaek.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Holbaek?

Naesby 2-3 Holbaek in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Holbaek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Naesby 50%, draw 24%, Holbaek 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Naesby)
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