Hajduk Split 4-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 30% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
73%
-15.3pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.0pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 12%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.52/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.66
-13% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +11%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
468 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
22.2 Crosses 13.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
4W-1D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.41 xG 0.82
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
411 Passes 298
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.03.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-3 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.12.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
19.02.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
4-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
3.01 xG 0.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
389 Passes 279
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split cruised past HNK Gorica 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 57% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 43%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 3.01 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Hajduk Split 4-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 58%, draw 22%, HNK Gorica 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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