Slaven Belupo 4-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.18
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
55%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.15
Over 2.5
43%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
4.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
19%
3.06
6+ Goals
8%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 34% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
27%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
11%
+9.5pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.6pp
55%
Away Win
71%
-16.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
43%
+14.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
57%
-14.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.1pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 75%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.78/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.70
-25% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 83%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
15.0 Crosses 17.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.56 xG 1.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
217 Passes 491
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.03.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 HT 2-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.12.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
16.09.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
15.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.02.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
4-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.84 xG 1.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 17
10 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 10
236 Passes 382
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo cruised past Dinamo Zagreb 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Dinamo Zagreb carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 41% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 59%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.84 to 1.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Slaven Belupo and 3.00 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Slaven Belupo 4-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 21%, draw 24%, Dinamo Zagreb 55%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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